NFL ATS picks.
The exact line matters.

An against-the-spread pick predicts whether a team covers a specific point spread. Jevan evaluates aggregate research against that reference line and records its selection before kickoff.

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NFL · Week 4Against the spread

DALDallas Cowboys

HOUHouston Texans

Jevan · Published pickDAL +2.5

68% Jevan estimate

Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · Exact recorded reference spread

Jevan estimate: 68.0% cover probability, excluding a push.

PENDING RESULT

Provisional · Version 1

Updated Sep 29, 2026, 12:54 PM EDT

Locks Oct 4, 2026, 12:50 PM EDT · 10 minutes before kickoff

Next scheduled review Oct 3, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT

Pick history (1)

Version 1: DAL +2.5 · 68.0%
Sep 29, 2026, 12:54 PM EDT · Initial review

Earlier versions remain visible. Only the final version is graded.

Three factors behind the forecast

Houston is listed at -2.5, so Dallas covers if Houston loses or wins by no more than 2 points; Houston must win by at least 3 to cover. That gives Dallas a narrow-margin cushion, not a guarantee.
Houston is 0-3 with a -7 average scoring margin through its first three games. Those early results offer some support for taking the points with Dallas, though three games are a small sample.
Houston has averaged 18 points scored and 25 allowed per game, but its latest loss was a close 17-19 result. The scoring rates raise concerns, while that narrow defeat is a reminder that Houston has kept a game close.

AI evidence summary · Based on the information supplied to Jevan, not its internal reasoning. Written Sep 29, 2026, 3:51 PM EDT.

Published Sep 29, 2026, 12:54 PM EDTView details ↗

What does covering the spread mean?

A team at +3.5 covers if it wins outright or loses by three points or fewer. A team at −3.5 must win by four points or more. At a whole-number spread, an adjusted tie is a push: a +3 pick losing by exactly three pushes.

Those examples show why a pick at +3.5 is different from +2.5. Each revision saves its exact reference spread. The final version locks 10 minutes before kickoff; the record never substitutes a line after that deadline.

How Jevan chooses the side.

Jevan uses aggregate forecasts, expert research, and game context to estimate cover probability at the verified reference spread. That estimate excludes a push and is not measured historical accuracy. The highest-ranked eligible weekly ATS selection becomes the free pick.

Read the selection methodology ↗

Published pregame picks

Jevan’s ATS record.

0–0–0Wins · losses · pushes

—ATS win rate · settled decisions

0Graded picks

16Pending result / ungraded

Win rate is wins ÷ (wins + losses), excluding pushes and unsettled games. No payout or ATS return is assumed when payout odds were not recorded.

Inspect the original picks and results ↗

How ATS results are graded.

After a verified final score, including overtime, we add the recorded spread to the selected team’s score and compare it with the opponent’s score. A positive adjusted margin wins, zero pushes, and a negative margin loses. Games remain pending until a final is verified.

Want the outright winner instead?

That is a moneyline question. A favorite can win and fail to cover; an underdog can lose and still cover. Jevan makes a separate forecast for each market and keeps their records separate.

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