Free NFL picks
of the week.

Three factors behind the forecast

• Houston is listed at -2.5, so Dallas covers if Houston loses or wins by no more than 2 points; Houston must win by at least 3 to cover. That gives Dallas a narrow-margin cushion, not a guarantee.
• Houston is 0-3 with a -7 average scoring margin through its first three games. Those early results offer some support for taking the points with Dallas, though three games are a small sample.
• Houston has averaged 18 points scored and 25 allowed per game, but its latest loss was a close 17-19 result. The scoring rates raise concerns, while that narrow defeat is a reminder that Houston has kept a game close.

AI evidence summary · Based on the information supplied to Jevan, not its internal reasoning. Written Sep 29, 2026, 3:51 PM EDT.

Three factors behind the forecast

• Baltimore started 2–1 and averaged 30.7 points per game, though it also allowed 26 points per game.
• Across just three games, Baltimore averaged 415.7 yards per game, including 248.3 passing and 167.3 rushing yards.
• Baltimore's latest listed game was a 34–31 win, but neither team's Week 4 starting quarterback was confirmed and final availability remained unresolved.

AI evidence summary · Based on the information supplied to Jevan, not its internal reasoning. Written Sep 29, 2026, 2:57 PM EDT.

Three factors behind the forecast

• Las Vegas has averaged 29.3 points scored and 18.0 allowed through three games, totaling 47.3 per game—slightly below 47.5, with a small sample.
• The Raiders’ latest listed game finished 35–27, or 62 combined points; one game alone is a limited guide to this matchup.
• Neither team’s October 4 starting quarterback was confirmed, and final inactives and game-week injury updates were unavailable, leaving scoring uncertainty.

AI evidence summary · Based on the information supplied to Jevan, not its internal reasoning. Written Sep 29, 2026, 2:45 PM EDT.